Although the Dolphins gashed the Patriots for 216 rushing yards in the first meeting, much of that had to do with the Wildcat ambush, so Bill Belichick's defense will be ready this time. Ronnie Brown was phenomenal in that game with 113 yards, including four rushing TDs and a passing score. Ricky Williams gained 98 yards as well. Despite the recent loss of LB Adalius Thomas, the Patriots haven't given up more than 60 rushing yards in their past two games, thanks in part to blossoming rookie LB Jerod Mayo, who has 85 tackles. EDGE: Dolphins

Dolphins PASSING GAME VS. Patriots PASS DEFENSE

Chad Pennington is third in the AFC in completion percentage and passer rating, but has just eight TD passes. The Patriots are ranked 13th in the NFL in passing defense but have 10 interceptions, with three apiece by SS Brandon Meriweather and CB Deltha O'Neal. In the last meeting, Pennington abused undersized CB Ellis Hobbs as he completed 17 of 20 for a career-best 85 percent and a 113.8 rating. DE Richard Seymour (6 sacks and 11 hurries) is a beast that LT Jake Long needs to fight off. The loss of Pro Bowl SS Rodney Harrison can't be overstated, leaving the middle open for TE Anthony Fasano, who's due for a big game. EDGE: Dolphins

Patriots RUNNING GAME VS. Dolphins RUN DEFENSE

The Patriots gained a season-low 78 yards in the first meeting, and are down to their Nos. 3 and 4 RBs in Sammy Morris and rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis, with Kevin Faulk used more as a pass catcher. Their ground game has been bolstered by scrambling QB Matt Cassel, who is coming off a franchise-high (for a QB) 62 yards. New England is ranked eighth in rushing and has averaged 153 rushing yards in their past five games. The Dolphins are ranked ninth against the run, giving up an average of 91.3 yards per game. They're led by SS Yeremiah Bell and MLB Channing Crowder with 76 and 75 tackles, respectively. EDGE: Patriots

Patriots PASSING GAME VS. Dolphins PASS DEFENSE

Since the first meeting Cassel has gotten more comfortable and is using all of his receivers a la Pennington. He's coming off a 400-yard game in the OT loss to the Jets and is no longer just considered Tom Brady's replacement. He is among the AFC's top six QBs in all major passing statistics, including No. 1 in third-down situations. He's got a game-breaking receiver in Randy Moss to throw to, as well as slot star Wes Welker, who is second in the NFL with 72 receptions. The Dolphins' secondary has improved since early-season woes, thanks in part to NFL sack leader OLB Joey Porter, who sacked Cassel four times in the first meeting. EDGE: Patriots

Dolphins SPECIAL TEAMS VS. Patriots SPECIAL TEAMS

Coach Tony Sparano will pull out the rest of his hair and become as bald as special teams coach John Bonamego if their horrendous kick-coverage units continue to give up long returns, including two punt-return TDs. The Patriots are ranked third in kick returns with elusive Ellis Hobbs leading the way. He shredded the Dolphins for a franchise-high 237 return yards in the first meeting. Welker and Faulk are also slippery, however, the Patriots are also susceptible on punt returns. EDGE: Patriots

INTANGIBLES

The Bill Belichick-led Patriots haven't been swept in a regular-season series since 2000 when both Miami and the Jets did it. However, they come in limping with a flurry of injuries. The amazingly healthy Dolphins will have a packed house for the first time this season and seem primed to knock out the perennial AFC East champs and contend for their first playoff spot since 2001. EDGE: Dolphins

PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Patriots 13

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